It’s been said once or twice around here, but Seattle only has one selection in the first 3 rounds, but that will all change sometime between now and the draft in 2 weeks.
I won’t go over the scenarios of trading back and moving Earl Thomas as they’re the obvious ones, but what I will go over is what we can expect for those two trade baits.
Firstly, let’s look at Seattle’s pick, number 18 in the first round.
According to Rich Hill’s draft chart (below) #18 is worth 286.72 points. So what teams could stump up the required value?
Let’s look at the teams with multiple 2nd round picks firstly –
The Browns have –
If you went with #33 and #64 (the first and last pick in the 2nd round) that adds up to 259.23 points. Add in the Browns 4th round (#115) and you get to 285.05. Seems like a match made in heaven, the Browns get to make 3 selections in the first round like they did last year and Seattle gains the very valuable first pick on day 2 along with a late second and another 4th.
The Colts have –
#36 and #37 add up to 327.64 so that probably wouldn’t work. But #36 and #49 would, that comes to 284.03. Again a perfect match. I think out of the two listed so far I’d take the Browns trade 10 times out of 10 but if the Browns either partner with someone else or don’t want to move back into the third time, it shouldn’t create a panic in the Seahawks war room.
The Bills also have 2 seconds and 2 thirds, however I’m not going into detail with them as they will likely be trading up and those picks will be a bigger priority for those trade talks.
The Patriots have –
Those two add up to 219.96. Add in their 3rd round (#95) and it comes to 260.22 so just under 25 points too short. The Patriots don’t pick again until the 6th round so unless they threw in a 2019 draft pick to sweeten the deal, the numbers don’t really add up.
Plus, I am struggling to work out a way that the trade makes sense for the Patriots. They already have two 1st round picks, why would they need another? It makes sense with the Browns, but not so much with the Patriots.
So if Seattle want to jump out of the first round altogether, the only realistic trade partners are the Colts and the Browns, but what if Seattle wants to still select in the first round with a smaller trade down?
The Panthers select at #26. Seattle could swap #18 for #24, #85 (3rd round) and #161 (5th round), that comes out in slight favour to the Panthers, but not by much (4.53 points)
This seems like the most likely scenario for me, personally. Of course one of the other teams picking from 24 – 32 ‘may’ be interested in moving up, especially if a defensive end falls down or a team wants to grab a wide receiver ahead of Dallas but if Seattle wants to trade down but stay in the 1st round, I’d say the Panthers seem like a very possible trade partner.
The other obvious trade piece is Earl Thomas. I think the chance of getting the supposed asking price of a 1st and a 3rd are not realistic. It’s a basic sell and buy technique, start high knowing the buyer is going to know you down.
I think the team would be perfectly happy with a 2nd plus another pick. That pick could be another 2nd next year (handy as Seattle doesn’t currently have one in 2019) or even a 3rd, 4th or 5th.
Given the situation that the team clearly does not want to extend him, I’d take the best offer whatever that may be at this point. If Earl isn’t going to be in the teams plans in 2019 and beyond, who would want him around in 2018 to only leave in free agency next offseason? It just doesn’t make any sense to me whatsoever. Get what you can now.
If the team make the Cleveland trade and get a 2nd and change for Earl, their draft board could look something like this –
(the 3rd comes after a trade up, Seattle would find themselves with more picks in the 4th and 5th round then they’d know what to do with so a trade up into the third would be very likely.
Considering the bulk of the value in this draft will be found on day 2, I’d be ecstatic with 4 picks split over the 2nd and 3rd round. Believe me when I say there will be impact players available. It’s not much longer to find out what Seattle does and I’d imagine they will end up making this draft a real nail biter with so many unknowns!